As tensions rise in Tanzania following post-election unrest and internet restrictions, Uganda is watching closely — with growing concern over how the crisis could affect trade, transport, and major energy projects linking the two neighbors.
For years, Uganda and Tanzania have enjoyed strong economic cooperation, especially through the Central Corridor and the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), which is under construction.
The 1,443-kilometer pipeline will transport Uganda’s crude oil from Hoima to the Tanzanian port of Tanga, where it will be exported to global markets.
But the recent political instability in Tanzania — including violent protests, curfews, and reports of internet shutdowns — has sparked fears that Uganda’s export routes and investments could be affected if the unrest persists.
Uganda heavily depends on Tanzanian routes for imports and exports. The Dar es Salaam and Tanga ports serve as vital gateways for goods entering and leaving the country.
According to Robert Nagenda, a trade analyst, Uganda had recently expanded its partnership with the Tanzania Ports Authority (TPA) to make trade more efficient.
“We even have an agreement with the Tanzania Ports Authority that allows Ugandan importers 30 days of free storage for cargo, plus special facilities for consolidation and reconsolidation,” Nagenda explained.
“If things get worse in Tanzania, these trade benefits could be disrupted.”
Ugandan traders say any disruption at the ports could push up the cost of goods and delay deliveries, especially for petroleum products, construction materials, and agricultural exports.
At the same time, construction of the EACOP project, led by TotalEnergies, continues in both Uganda and Tanzania. The project, worth over $4 billion, is nearing key milestones — including the completion of the jetty and storage tanks in Tanga, where oil will be loaded onto ships.
Engineers and logistics experts warn that political instability could slow down operations, increase insurance costs, or force temporary work stoppages.
“The pipeline depends on cross-border stability. Any prolonged violence or government crackdown could make movement of equipment and staff very difficult,” said an official familiar with the project.
Tanzania’s troubles could also affect the broader East African Community (EAC), where regional trade and cooperation depend heavily on peace and open borders. Uganda, Rwanda, Kenya, and Burundi all rely on Tanzania’s ports and highways for goods transit.
Economists note that if Tanzania’s unrest disrupts trade, Uganda’s import costs could rise, fuel shortages could occur, and key infrastructure timelines might be delayed — including those linked to the oil sector.
“If Tanzania sneezes, Uganda could catch a cold,” said a Kampala-based analyst. “Our economies are closely connected. We can’t pretend that what happens in Dar es Salaam won’t affect Kampala.”
Ugandan officials have not issued an official statement on the situation but say they are monitoring developments in Tanzania and preparing alternative logistics options, such as using the Mombasa port in Kenya, should disruptions continue.
Meanwhile, trade experts urge East African governments to work together to preserve peace and economic stability in the region. “Integration cannot thrive amid uncertainty,” said Nagenda. “Peace in Tanzania is peace for East Africa.”
