By Emmanuel Mihiingo Kaija
Part One: Where Does the Money Go When Profits Are Everywhere but Owners Are Nowhere?
East Africa’s economies have demonstrated measurable growth for much of the past decade, yet the question of who ultimately benefits from that growth remains surprisingly opaque.
For example, Kenya’s economy grew 4.9 % year‑on‑year in the third quarter of 2025, driven by sectors including construction, agriculture, and mining, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics with analysis confirmed by the World Bank. Tanzania’s growth trajectory also reflects this pattern, with the economy sustaining roughly 5.4–6 % GDP growth in early 2025, supported by investment in infrastructure, services, and mining activity, making it one of East Africa’s fastest‑growing economies. Uganda and other EAC member states similarly recorded growth above regional averages in 2024, although structural challenges remain. These macroeconomic figures paint a picture of dynamic activity across transport, construction, mining, finance, and trade. Yet when one asks the crucial follow‑up — who precisely captures the resulting wealth at the individual or institution level? — the trail becomes frustratingly elusive.
This opacity is not an accident but a structural feature of how wealth is generated and recorded in the region. In November 2025, the construction of the USD 500 million Devki Mega Steel Plant in Tororo, Uganda was officially launched by Presidents Yoweri Museveni and William Ruto, with stated expectations of generating more than 15,000 jobs at start‑up and up to 20,000 by 2027. Yet detailed breakdowns of ownership and profit distribution for this project are obscured behind layered corporate arrangements and regional investment vehicles — a situation common to large industrial and infrastructure projects in the region.
The extractive sector, particularly mining, provides a clear case study of wealth generation that is visible in aggregate economic data but opaque in terms of individual and collective beneficiaries. In Tanzania, gold exports accounted for a substantial portion of national merchandise exports in 2023, with gold alone valued at over USD 3.05 billion and comprising roughly 42 % of total exports, according to the Bank of Tanzania’s economic review. Over time, mining’s share of national GDP has risen sharply; by 2024 the sector contributed over 10 % of Tanzania’s GDP, up from roughly 3.5 % in 2008, and total export earnings (including minerals) were estimated at USD 16.1 billion. Despite these large numbers, the identities of the ultimate economic beneficiaries — individuals, shareholder groups, foreign partners — are often shielded behind multinational joint ventures and cross‑jurisdictional structures. This makes tracing the ultimate realization of mineral wealth difficult within domestic public records.
Uganda’s export profile tells its own story of productive sectors with unclear beneficiary visibility. Monthly export earnings surged by 53.6 % between July 2024 and July 2025, rising from USD 812.7 million to USD 1,248.1 million, driven by gold, sugar, cement and other commodities. Gold exports alone nearly doubled to USD 584.2 million in July 2025. These figures indicate that East African economies are not static; they are actively producing tradable wealth. But cross‑referencing these flows with well‑documented lists of major beneficial owners — business leaders, founding shareholders, or accountable corporations — yields striking gaps in public transparency.
Transport and logistics — sometimes described as the “backbone” of East African trade — further illustrate this phenomenon. The Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) in Kenya and regional corridors linking Mombasa, Nairobi, Kampala, and Kigali facilitate the movement of goods worth billions, supporting commerce across borders and contributing to GDP growth that outpaces many global averages.
However, when one investigates profit capture, including the identities of major logistics firms, trucking consortia, and terminal operators, many rely on nominee ownership arrangements, cross‑listed holdings, or regional entities with limited disclosures in national beneficial‑ownership registries. The result is a pattern of economic dynamism that hides the identities of top beneficiaries behind layers of corporate confidentiality and regulatory complexity.
Even when governments attempt to improve transparency through legislation, the implementation mechanisms often fail to deliver meaningful clarity. In Kenya and Uganda, recent amendments to corporate and anti‑money laundering laws include provisions for reporting beneficial ownership of corporations. However, these provisions are frequently cited in policy reviews as incomplete or inadequately enforced, leaving company ownership structures in practice opaque to both citizens and civil society organizations. Regional audits, including those highlighted in Africa’s Development Dynamics 2025 by the OECD, show that official development finance and private participation in infrastructure remain concentrated in complex project structures that are hard to unravel, even with access to regulatory filings.
The social consequences of this invisibility are measurable. According to regional statistics portals such as the East African Community Data Portal, agriculture remains the mainstay of livelihoods for roughly 80 % of the population, yet sectors with faster observed GDP growth — such as finance, construction, and mining — often fail to translate macroeconomic performance into equivalent social outcomes. This discrepancy generates friction: citizens witness cranes and highways but still face inadequate access to healthcare, education, and formal employment. When large export earnings such as those from Tanzania’s gold sector or Uganda’s commodity boom do not correspond with proportional investments in human development, the absence of clearly accountable beneficiaries becomes a social problem, not just a technical reporting gap.
This emerging paradox — visible economic activity and invisible wealth capture — defines a central mystery in East African political economy. Growth figures reflect real increases in output and trade, yet the question of who benefits in tangible, accountable terms remains unresolved. Mapping these discrepancies requires not just numbers but a critical interrogation of institutional structures, corporate practices, and regulatory frameworks. In the next parts of this series, we will follow the trail through ownership networks, regulatory blind spots, cross‑border investment patterns, and data governance gaps, all of which contribute to a system where profits abound but beneficiaries are seldom traceable.
Bibliography
Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. (2026). GDP growth data, Q3 2025. Reuters reporting.
Deloitte Insights. (2025). East Africa economic outlook. Global Finance Magazine. (2025). Tanzania economic growth summary.
UNCTAD. (2024). World Investment Report 2024. East African Community report. (2025). Growth rates of EAC member states.
Bank of Tanzania & Qiraat Africa. (2025). Gold export data and statistics.
TICGL. (2024). Mining sector GDP contribution Tanzania.
Business Times Uganda. (2025). Export earnings growth report.
LinkedIn East Africa Insider. (2025). Digital economy and infrastructure analysis.
OECD. (2025). Africa’s Development Dynamics 2025. East African Community Data Portal. (2025). Sector data and livelihoods.
