More than 2,500 migrants have crossed the English Channel in small boats in the 11 days since the UK’s new “one in, one out” migrant agreement with France came into effect, according to new Home Office figures.
The bilateral deal, unveiled by Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron during Macron’s state visit in July, aims to reduce illegal crossings by returning one irregular migrant to France for every eligible asylum seeker Britain accepts.
But despite early detentions under the scheme, no returns to France have yet occurred, with removals expected to take up to three months, fueling concerns about the deal’s short-term impact.
The total number of people who have crossed the Channel in small boats so far this year has risen to over 28,000, with more than 50,000 arriving since Labour came to power in July 2024.
This week, a single overloaded boat carrying more than 100 people was spotted in the Channel. Aid workers say overcrowding is worsening, putting vulnerable people — including children — at even greater risk.
“We’re hearing of children being crushed, both during boarding and inside the boats,” said Rob Lawrie, a volunteer aid worker. “Smugglers are now estimating they can pack 150 people into one vessel.”
The increase in crossings during the summer is not unusual — calmer seas, lower winds, and longer daylight hours create ideal conditions. But observers note this summer’s surge may also reflect attempts to cross before enforcement of the new policy intensifies.
Under the pilot, the UK is to accept one vetted asylum seeker for every irregular migrant returned to France. Those selected must pass strict eligibility and security checks, and must not have attempted to cross illegally.
So far, only incoming migrants have been detained — no returns to France have yet taken place, delaying the intended deterrent effect of the agreement.
“If you break the law to enter this country, you will face being sent back,” Starmer said earlier this month. “When I say I will stop at nothing to secure our borders, I mean it.”
Yet critics say the government’s approach lacks urgency.
Chris Philp, Shadow Home Secretary, dismissed the deal as “having no deterrent effect whatsoever,” and called for “more robust border enforcement and quicker returns.”
Despite enhanced cooperation, people-smuggling gangs remain active. The National Crime Agency (NCA) reported the seizure of 20 inflatable boats in Bulgaria last week — the second such find in three weeks, indicating attempts to restock smuggling operations.
A BBC undercover investigation also recently revealed a violent smuggling network operating between the UK and France, highlighting the ongoing dangers migrants face.
A Home Office spokesperson said:
“These criminal gangs don’t care whether the vulnerable people they exploit live or die — as long as they pay. That’s why we are implementing a comprehensive strategy to dismantle these operations.”
According to Home Office data, the top five nationalities arriving by small boat in the year to March 2025 were, Afghanistan, Syria, Iran, Vietnan and Eritrea
Together, these accounted for 61% of all arrivals.
Nearly one-third of the 108,000 people who claimed asylum in the UK in 2024 arrived via small boat.
While the Home Office has legal authority to remove individuals who lack asylum rights, it is still bound by the 1951 Refugee Convention, which permits individuals to claim asylum if they face threats to life or freedom in their home countries.
Channel Crossings by Year (Jan–Aug)
Year Crossings by Aug 5
2021 28,526
2022 45,774
2023 ~36,000
2024 ~44,000
2025 25,436 (highest to date for this point in the year)
The pilot deal is set to run for 11 months. However, with deportations delayed, the government faces growing political pressure to demonstrate progress before the policy can be seen as an effective deterrent.
“Ministers promised to smash the smuggling gangs,” said one opposition MP. “But so far, they’ve barely dented them.”
The government argues that international cooperation is key, and insists the current figures underscore the urgency of long-term migration reform.
