Kenyans are bracing for potential fuel price increases as global oil prices continue their upward trajectory ahead of the upcoming Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) review.
Brent crude has surged more than 9% in Asian trading, surpassing $100 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures edged toward $95 per barrel as of Thursday, March 12, 2026. This follows rising tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, which has disrupted shipping routes in the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
Coordinated Oil Reserve Release
In response to the volatility, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that its 32 member countries would release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, the largest coordinated drawdown in the agency’s history. However, the timeline for releasing these stocks remains flexible, with each country acting according to its own circumstances.
“The conflict in the Middle East is having significant impacts on global oil and gas markets, with major implications for energy security, affordability, and the global economy,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
Despite the planned release, ongoing disruptions—such as attacks on oil terminals in Iraq and Iran’s conditional ceasefire demands—continue to pressure global markets. Analysts warn that oil prices could spike as high as $200 per barrel if hostilities intensify.
Local Implications for Kenya
Kenya could face a fuel shortage and higher pump prices as early as the end of March. A key Abu Dhabi refinery supplying fuel to Kenya and Uganda was affected by the conflict, compounding supply pressures.
During the February EPRA review, prices were reduced slightly:
Super Petrol: KSh 178.28 per litre
Diesel: KSh 166.54 per litre
Kerosene: KSh 152.78 per litre
Energy and Petroleum Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi warns that the rising global oil prices may reverse these reductions, putting additional inflationary pressure on households and businesses.
Looking Ahead
As global tensions persist, Kenyans are advised to monitor fuel price updates from EPRA closely. The government continues to explore strategies to mitigate supply disruptions and stabilize domestic energy markets amid global uncertainty.
