China has dropped from being Japan’s biggest tourism market after a sudden and sharp fall in the number of Chinese visitors. This decline comes as tensions rise between Beijing and Tokyo over comments made about Taiwan.
According to Chinese aviation tracker DAST, at least a dozen flight routes between China and Japan have been cancelled in recent weeks. The cancellations follow remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who told parliament that if China were to launch an attack on Taiwan, Japan might respond militarily. Taiwan is a self-ruled democracy that China claims as its territory.
Beijing reacted strongly to the statement. The Chinese government warned its citizens against travelling to Japan and sent a formal complaint to the United Nations outlining its concerns. As a result, the impact on Japan’s tourism sector has been immediate and severe.
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, mainland China had been Japan’s largest source of tourists since 2015. After global travel resumed, tourist numbers steadily increased, and China even overtook South Korea last month to become Japan’s top visitor market again.
But the renewed diplomatic friction has quickly reversed this trend. The fall in visitors comes at a time when many Japanese businesses were counting on Chinese tourists to boost spending, especially during the holiday seasons.
China is not only a major tourism market for Japan but also its second-largest export market after the United States. In 2024, China bought about $125 billion worth of Japanese goods, including industrial machinery, semiconductors, and cars.
Experts warn that the tourism fallout could worsen if tensions persist. Stephen Nagy, a professor of politics and international studies, says China may keep applying pressure on Japan’s economy through different channels. According to travel research firm China Trading Desk, Japan could lose as much as $1.2 billion in tourist spending by the end of the year.
The Lunar New Year is traditionally one of the busiest travel seasons for Chinese tourists visiting Japan. However, the recent wave of flight cancellations and political warnings casts doubt on whether the usual holiday surge will take place.
For now, both countries face economic and diplomatic consequences as the dispute continues, with Japan’s tourism sector bracing for further losses.
