President Donald Trump has promised that his policies, including mass deportations, will boost the American economy, increase workers’ pay, and reduce government debt. But a new study from the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School suggests the opposite may happen.
The analysis shows that deporting large numbers of unauthorized immigrants could shrink the economy, lower wages for most workers, and increase the federal budget deficit by hundreds of billions of dollars.
According to the study, if the government removes 10% of unauthorized immigrants each year for four years, it would reduce the gross domestic product (GDP) by 1%, raise the federal deficit by \$350 billion, and lower average wages. If this policy continues for 10 years, the GDP would shrink by 3.3%, deficits would reach nearly \$1 trillion, and wages would fall by 1.7%.
Why would this happen? Deporting millions means fewer workers available to produce goods and services. Many industries rely on low-skilled immigrant labor to fill jobs that native-born workers often do not want, such as farming, construction, and cleaning.
The study notes that wages for authorized, low-skilled workers might rise slightly because there would be less competition. But higher-skilled workers—like those with college education—would lose out because they depend on low-skilled workers to help in their jobs and lives. For example, office workers rely on janitors, security staff, and delivery workers, many of whom are immigrants.
Experts warn that removing large parts of the workforce could cause shortages in many sectors, increase costs for businesses, and hurt consumers with higher prices.
The White House responded by emphasizing the costs of illegal immigration, such as crime and strain on public services, and said there are enough American workers to grow the economy. However, unemployment among young adults remains high, and many economists highlight the challenge of an aging population that needs immigrant workers to fill labor gaps.
Economists like Stephanie Roth and Joe Brusuelas say immigration is essential for a strong economy and that policies should focus on rational immigration reform rather than mass deportations.
In short, while the goal is to improve the economy, mass deportations could backfire—shrinking the workforce, reducing economic growth, and lowering paychecks for many Americans.
