A new opinion poll by TIFA Research shows that many Kenyans believe President William Ruto’s chances of winning re-election in 2027 have become more difficult following the death of opposition leader Raila Odinga.
According to the poll released on December 23, 2025, 41 per cent of Kenyans think Raila’s absence from politics will make it harder for President Ruto to secure a second term. However, opinions remain divided. About 30 per cent of respondents believe Ruto’s re-election will now be easier, while 18 per cent say Raila’s death will make no difference. Another 10 per cent are unsure.
The findings show that Kenyans see Raila Odinga as a major political figure whose absence has changed the country’s political balance. Still, the poll suggests that President Ruto’s chances in 2027 will depend more on his government’s performance than on the strength or weakness of the opposition.
The survey also highlights major changes in party support since the 2022 general election. The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) remains the most popular party at 20 per cent, followed by President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) at 16 per cent. This is a sharp drop from August 2022, when ODM had 32 per cent support and UDA stood at 38 per cent.
As support for the main parties declines, the number of undecided voters has grown significantly. Thirty per cent of Kenyans now say they have not decided which party to support, up from 15 per cent in 2022. This makes undecided voters the largest group in the electorate and shows that voter loyalty is becoming weaker.
Other political parties trail far behind. Jubilee Party has 11 per cent support, while DCP stands at 6 per cent, Wiper at 4 per cent, Ford-Kenya at 1 per cent, and DAP-Kenya at 1 per cent. Smaller parties combined account for 4 per cent.
The poll also shows that many Kenyans expect ODM to leave the Broad-Based Government and return to opposition before the 2027 election. Fifty per cent of respondents believe ODM will exit the government, while 30 per cent think it will stay. Another 20 per cent are uncertain.
However, Kenyans are divided over who should lead the opposition in the post-Raila era. About 34 per cent want ODM to choose a leader from within the party as its presidential candidate. Twenty-four per cent say ODM should not endorse anyone and should let voters decide. Another 20 per cent believe ODM should support a candidate from the wider Azimio opposition.
Interestingly, 19 per cent of respondents said they would support President Ruto as an ODM candidate if political alliances changed and if UDA and Kenya Kwanza did not field a candidate. Only 3 per cent had no opinion.
Overall, the TIFA poll paints a picture of a highly uncertain political environment. With major parties losing support, more voters undecided, and no clear opposition leader after Raila Odinga, the road to the 2027 general election remains unpredictable for all political players in Kenya.
